September 26, 2008, 3:40 pm
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008 ... ectations/Debate ExpectationsBy Michael Falcone
Besides the post-debate “Spin Room,” where campaign aides and surrogates gather to assess the candidates’ performances, there is perhaps no category of spin of more dubious origin than pre-debate expectations setting.
And we’re hearing some of it today.
The Obama campaign distributed a memo this afternoon titled “Home-field advantage: John McCain.” Though the debate’s moderator Jim Lehrer is quite likely to dip into questions about the economy, the night’s focus is foreign policy, which the Obama campaign calls “McCain’s professed area of expertise.”
“If he slips up, makes a mistake, or fails to deliver a game-changing performance, it will be a serious blow to his campaign,” according to the memo. “Given his unsteady performance this week, he desperately needs to win this debate in a big way in order to change the topic and get back to his home turf.”
The memo goes on to footnote more than half a dozen media clips that the Obama campaign says tout Mr. McCain’s prowess as a debater as well as several more articles under the bold-faced heading “Debates are not a good format for Obama.”
The Obama campaign writes: “McCain’s debating skills are unparalleled, as you can see below, and the expectations for him tonight are sky-high.”
The Obama team is taking a page from a well-worn political playbook: raise expectations for the other guy while lowering them for your own candidate.
Alex Conant, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, sent around this response:
“It says a lot about the candidates’ priorities that while John McCain was focused on rescuing the economy, Barack Obama’s campaign was drafting a debate memo,” Mr. Conant said in a statement. “Strong leadership does not transparently attempt to lower expectations by circulating clips criticizing yourself.”
Mr. Conant did, however, circulate a television clip of Obama foreign policy adviser Susan Rice on MSNBC today, saying that violence in Iraq is down “and that’s a tribute to our service men and women, and to a changed strategy pointing towards more effective counter-insurgency tactics.” In his e-mail message, Mr. Conant was using the clip as ammunition to ask: “Will Obama admit tonight that he was wrong to oppose the surge and admit that the new strategy succeeded?”
McCain-Palin spokesman-blogger, Michael Goldfarb, also responded to the Obama memo, charging that it “perfectly captures the nastiness and politics first approach of Senator Obama’s campaign.” He noted that the Democrats included a press clipping of an Associated Press story that called some of Mr. Obama’s previous debate performances “lifeless, aloof and windy.”
“In fact, that is a better characterization of Senator Obama’s brief record in the United States Senate,” Mr. Goldfarb said in a statement.
The McCain campaign — most likely because the Arizona senator’s attendance at the event was in doubt until Friday afternoon — has been more tight-lipped over the last 24 hours about how both candidates would do.
But earlier this week, Mike DuHaime, Senator McCain’s political director, told reporters that Senator Barack Obama was a “phenomenal debater.”
And on Tuesday, before he decided to put his campaign on a temporary hold, Mr. McCain was playing the expectations game too. While campaigning in Ohio on Tuesday, he said “have no doubt about the capabilities of Senator Obama” at a debate.
“He’s very, very good,’’ Mr. McCain said. “He was able to beat Senator Hillary Clinton, who as we all know is very accomplished — very accomplished. And he was able to, I think, with his eloquence inspire a great number of Americans. So, these are going to be tough debates.’’
And en route from Washington to Memphis today, McCain adviser Mark Salter spelled out his goals for Senator McCain at the debate, according to a pool report: “To do well, against a guy who’s a pretty good debater, show presidential leadership and be able to speak directly to the American people about what he believes.”