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May be early, but its only 11 months away. This Election is critical if Democrats are to take the Legislature back.

Close races where an incumbent may be upset or the party affiliation MAY change:

1. Claire McCaskill (D) leads incumbent Jim Talent (R) in polls (Rasmussen Poll, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... ry%202.htm) 46% - 43%

2. Close race in Minnesota for Mark Dayton's (D - retiring) seat. So far, the most popular Democrat candidate, Klobuchar is leading Mark Kennedy (R) 48% - 41% ( http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Mi ... Senate.htm)

3. Bill Frist's (retiring) seat may be one of the most competitive races. The likely Democratic nominee, Congressman Harold Ford leads Bob Corker (R) 42% - 36%. ( http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Te ... c%2012.htm)

4. Governator's time might be over. In a tight popularity contest, Schwarzenator is trailing two leading Democrats for California Governorship. Phil Angelidas (D), State Treasurer, leads Arnold 44% - 40%. Steve Westly (D), State Controller, leads Arnold, 44% - 39% ( http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Ca ... vernor.htm)

5. A close race is shaping up to replace Jon Corzine (D). Corzine's replacement, Robert Menendez (D), leads State Senator Tom Kean (R), 38% - 34%. It means little as 18% have not shown their preference ion this poll ( http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Ne ... ec%208.htm)

6. A very competitive race for Nevada Governor. The most likely Democrat, Jim Gibson, leads Jim Gibbons (R) 42% - 39% ( http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Ne ... er%206.htm)

7. A Republican Senatorial seat in Ohio is a subject of a possibly competitive race. Senator Mark DeWine (R) is holding sleam leads against two Democratic challengers, Congressman Sherrod Brown (43% - 41%) and Paul Hackett, an Iraq War Veteran and strong critic of President Bush (42% - 41%) ( http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Oh ... er%202.htm)

8. A toss-up in Iowa Governor race. One of three Democratic candidates, Chett Culver, holds a 3% lead over Republican Jim Nussle. However, Nussle holds 3% leads over the other two democrats, Mike Blouin and Patty Judge. ( http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Io ... er%201.htm)

It is still way too early. If the Election were today, Democrats might achieve modest gains (a seat or two both in Senate and in the Congress). However, the Elections are 11 months away. The problems in Iraq and scandals surrounding the White House, as well as seniors really not taking in Medicare Plan may hurt Bush yet more. However, the continually improving, at a very good pace, economy, will help Bush. Will see what is more important for the voter. 11 months ahead may bring new issues to influence the elections.

Two more governatorial races may be close and due to these states being key - very important.

1. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... ry%204.htm

Ohio Governor: Democratic Congressman Ted Strickland enjoys a four-to-sixteen point lead over possible Republican opponents in the Ohio governor's race. Strickland leads Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell 44% to 40% (slightly less than the poll's margin of error of 4.5%); leads Attorney General Jim Petro 43% to 38%; and wallops State Auditor Betty Montgomery 49% to 33%.

2. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... ry%203.htm

A virtual toss-up for Florida Governor to replace Jeb Bush. Attorney General Charlie Crist (R) leads Congressman Jim Davis (D) by just a single percentage point, 36% to 35%. Six weeks earlier, Davis had a three-point advantage in this match-up.

Davis is tied at 37% with the other potential GOP candidate, Tom Gallagher.

1. Maryland Senate watch:

In the contest to replace Democratic Senator Paul Sarbanes, after trailing early on, the Lt. Governor Michael Steele (R) took a 5% lead over the most likely Democrat, Congressman Ben Cardin. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... y%2010.htm

GOP has a good chance to compete and win this formerly Democratic seat.

2. Maryland Governor race:

In this seesaw battle, Governor Bob Ehrlich (R) leads Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley 47% to 40%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... y%2010.htm

1. Congressional Ballot: Dems 46% GOP 35%. If the congressional election were today, Democrats would get 46%, GOP - 35%. The rest are either undecided or voting for a third party candidate.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/Ja ... Ballot.htm

2. Arkansas Governor.

Democrat Mike Beebe is maintaining a narrow lead, 46% to 40%, over Republican Asa Hutchinson in the race to succeed Governor Mike Huckabee.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... y%2015.htm

PA Governor Race. Two days after officially entering the race, Republican Lynn Swann, the former receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers, narrowly leading Democratic Governor Ed Rendell 45% to 43%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... y%2015.htm

Note: The governor is a fan of the Philadelphia Eagles...

Congressional Ballot: Dems 46% GOP 35%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/Ja ... Ballot.htm

January 18, 2006--Forty-six percent (46%) of Americans say they will vote for a Democratic candidate in their Congressional race this year while 35% plan to vote for a Republican.

In this Rasmussen Reports survey, Democrats have a 4 percentage point edge among men and a 17-point advantage among women.

New polls, which have all concluded since:

I. The hunting accident
II. Bush - Dubai veto promise

1. Ohio Governor race:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... bruary.htm

Democratic Congressman Ted Strickland continues to lead his potential Republican opponents in the Ohio governor's race.

Strickland leads Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell 47% to 35%. This is a weaker showing for the Republican than we found in January.

2. Ohio Senate Race:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... bruary.htm

Republican Senator Mike DeWine has gained ground in his campaign for re-election. DeWine now leads Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown by nine percentage points, 46% to 37% (see crosstabs).

3. Pennsylvania Senate Race:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... bruary.htm

Republican Senator Rick Santorum continues to trail Democratic challenger Bob Casey, Jr. The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Santorum behind by 16 percentage points, 52% to 36%. That's essentially the same gap we found in last month's poll.

4. Pennsylvania Governor race:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... bruary.htm

With the field reduced to two players, the latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Democratic Governor Ed Rendell narrowly leading Republican Lynn Swann, the former Pittsburgh Steeler, 46% to 43%.

5. Florida Governor race:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... bruary.htm

February 15, 2006--Republican candidates Charlie Crist and Tom Gallagher have opened leads over potential Democratic challengers in the race to succeed Jeb Bush as Governor of Florida.

Attorney General Charlie Crist (R) leads Congressman Jim Davis (D) by five percentage points, 42% to 37%.

Davis trails the other potential GOP candidate, Tom Gallagher, by an even wider margin, 44% to 34%.

With Rod Smith as the Democrats' nominee, Crist leads 45% to 33% and Gallagher holds a 45% to 32% advantage

7. Iowa Governor race:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... bruary.htm

February 15, 2006--There's been little change in Iowa since our last survey in the race to succeed Governor Tom Vilsack (D).

As in January, Republican Congressman Jim Nussle is still neck and neck with Democrat Chet Culver, Iowa's Secretary of State, though Culver now nominally leads, 41% to 40%.

8. Florida Senate race:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... bruary.htm

In recent weeks, several Republican political leaders in Florida have stopped trying to push Katherine Harris out of the U.S. Senate campaign and decided to support her efforts. Governor Jeb Bush, Lt. Governor Toni Jennings, and members of the state's Congressional delegation have indicated that they will campaign for Harris.

Rank-and-file Republicans have made the adjustment as well. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of GOP voters now plan to vote for Harris in November. That's up from 59% in early January and matches Senator Bill Nelson's support among Democrats.

Overall, however, Harris still trails Nelson by nine percentage points, 49% to 40% (see crosstabs). Among voters not affiliated with either the Republicans or Democrats, Harris trails badly, 64% to 18%.

9. Texas Governor race:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... bruary.htm

Carole Keeton Strayhorn's defection from the GOP to run for Governor as an Independent is making things interesting in President Bush's home state.

In the six weeks since Strayhorn announced plans for an Independent challenge, her support has increased ten percentage points. She is now within single digits of catching Governor Rick Perry. Depending upon which Democrat is added in the mix, Perry leads Strayhorn either 40% to 31% or 38% to 29%.

In our January election poll for Texas, Strayhorn earned 21% of the vote.

Both Democratic contenders currently attract less than 20% of voters and a fourth competitor, Richard "Kinky" Friedman is in the high single digits. At the moment, the Democrats and Friedman appear as by-standers in a Republican civil war.

10. Virginia Senate Race:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... bruary.htm

After Miller gave the Democrats a candidate to challenge the incumbent, former Navy secretary James Webb soon became the second Democrat in the race. Webb had been considering a run for months but formally took the plunge only recently, on February 7.

Today, Allen leads Miller 48% to 35%. He leads Webb by a similar margin, 49% to 37%. It is significant that Allen's support has now dipped below 50% when pitted either against potential challenger.

11. Montana Senate Race:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/St ... bruary.htm

Montana Senator Conrad Burns (R) has recently tried to shore up wilting poll numbers wrought by bad publicity about alleged connections to indicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Shortly after the January Rasmussen Reports poll showed his re-election prospects declining, Senator Burns returned to Montana to address the Abramoff issue. He also introduced a bill seeking to address lobbying reform. The bill was the subject of a January 26 press release issued by his office.

However, the incumbent continues to sag when matched up with either of two possible Democratic opponents.

When likely Montana voters are asked about a match-up between Burns and State Auditor John Morrison, we find Morrison leading by seven percentage points, 50% to 43%. That's a reversal since January, when Burns was leading Morrison—though only narrowly, 46% to 43%, a toss-up

Dubai Ports and Election 2006
March 3, 2006--Following the 2002 mid-term elections, Scott Rasmussen released a report entitled "The GOP Generation." The basic premise was that if George W. Bush was successful in dealing with Iraq, Republicans would control both houses of Congress for at least a generation. This projection was based partly upon the political benefits that would flow from success in Iraq and partly based upon institutional factors that give the GOP some advantages in both the House and Senate.

However, the report made it clear that if the President's policies in Iraq were seen as a failure, "Democrats will be given another chance to make their case to American voters." Heading into Election 2006, the Democrats clearly have been given the chance to make their case. But until the Dubai Ports story erupted in the news, it looked as if the Democrats were heading down the wrong path and likely to let the opportunity pass.

Some Democrats are so offended by the current President that they wanted to make Impeachment a driving force of the election season. That probably would have been as successful in 2006 as it was in 1998 when Republicans focused on the Impeachment of Bill Clinton and lost ground in Congress.

Other Democrats thought (hoped) that Hurricane Katrina, the Dick Cheney hunting incident, or other issues that won't last until election day might topple the GOP from power.

A few thought the NSA wiretapping story was their big break. That turned out to be a gift for the President because he got to once again be the defender of national security. While most Americans think legal niceties should be observed, they are just as concerned about catching bad guys. The general public attitude is evenly divided between those who think we are too worried about national security and those who believe we are too worried about protecting individual liberties. Karl Rove was happy to have this issue in the news and quickly signaled that the GOP would make national security the primary issue of Election 2006

Other Democrats wanted to keep focusing on the question of how we got into Iraq rather than how we get out of the situation. Politically, this was a big loser because the public was already beginning to place more emphasis on domestic issues that favor Democrats. Until the last week or so, anything that drew attention back to Iraq was drawing attention to Bush's strongest asset--his national security credentials.

Part of this floundering was understandable frustration. In the GOP Generation, we noted that there was nothing the Democrats could do to "change the basic dynamic" of the national security issue. Their only hope was to wait for a mistake by the Bush team--a hope that was realized when the Dubai Ports story erupted on the national scene.

Our first survey on the topic found that the public opposed the Administration's decision on the ports issue by a 64% to 17% margin. For the first time ever--voters preferred Democrats in Congress over the President on national security. To put this into perspective, consider the 2002 election. That year, the President's position on national security was so solid that his party regained control of the Senate at a time when just 23% of Americans rated the economy as good or excellent. Two years later, 51% of Americans thought the U.S. and its allies were winning the War on Terror and the President was re-elected with 51% of the vote.

Republicans cannot retain control of Congress following November's election if the Democrats are competitive on national security issues.

The University of Virginia's Larry Sabato summarized the situation succinctly for us--"Since 9/11, Bush's consistent political advantage has been the public's confidence in him to handle the terrorist threat. The Iraq War has weakened Bush's edge, and now the Dubai ports misstep may destroy it. This has become a troubled and tone-deaf Presidency."

It's important to note that the Dubai Ports story is far more significant politically than the issue itself. That's because it gives people an opportunity to re-evaluate the President on a whole range of issues relating to national security. Our latest survey finds the number who think the U.S. and its Allies are winning the War on Terror has dipped below 40% and is near the lowest levels ever recorded. By a 2-to-1 margin, Americans think things in Iraq are likely to get worse in the next six months. That's the bleakest assessment since the first votes were cast in Iraq over a year ago.

Beyond that, if the Dubai ports story helps the Democrats win key Senate seats in 2006, it will have an impact far beyond this campaign season. One of the reasons that The GOP Generation was able to project lasting Senate control for the GOP was that the President's Party has an "enduring structural majority" based upon the fact that there are more Red (Republican) States than Blue (Democrat) States.

In recent years, the trend has been for Senators to be elected from the same party as the winner of that state's electoral votes. During Election 2004, eight Senate seats changed parties--all but one moved into alignment with the state's Presidential voting habits. If every state voted in this way, the GOP would have a 62-38 advantage in the Senate right now.

Any Red State Senate seats that the Democrats can pick up in Election 2006 place a lasting dent in the structural majority. At the moment, the Democrats are clearly competitive in several such races including Montana, Missouri, and Ohio. Democrats also have a good chance to take back a Blue State seat in Pennsylvania.

Just as important, several Democrats once thought to be in danger seem to be much more comfortable at this time. This includes Nelson in Florida along with Blue State Senators Cantwell in Washington, Stabenow in Michigan, and the open seat in Maryland.

Of course, there are still nine months to Election Day and a lot can happen. But, the situation in Iraq has given the Democrats the opportunity to regain majority status in Congress; the Dubai ports issue has provided a rallying point; and, the President has lost the initiative on his signature issue.

Unless the President can re-establish dominance on the national security issue, the opportunity for George W. Bush to leave behind a GOP Generation will disappear.

***

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Visit our Election Polls page to see our latest Election 2006 state-by-state polling.

Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Some latest polls (Rasmussen Reports)five months before the election:

Colorado Governor
Ritter by Five
The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in Colorado finds Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter (D) edging out GOP Representative Bob Beauprez by five points, 43% to 38%, in the race for Governor.

The two likely nominees have been neck-and-neck for a few months now. In April Beauprez led by a couple points, 39% to 37%. In March, Ritter had a point on Beauprez, 41% to 40%.

Pennsylvania Governor
Rendell Opens Big Lead
Governor Ed Rendell (D) has opened his biggest lead of the season over challenger and political newcomer Lynn Swann (R). After being neck-and-neck with Swann in the previous four Rasmussen Reports Pennsylvania election polls, Rendell now holds an 18-point advantage, 52% to 34%.

Kansas Governor
Sebelius Lead Expands
Although Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D) does not currently attract more than 50% support when matched up with her Republican opponents, she is maintaining strong but slightly narrower leads over them.

Sebelius now leads former state House Speaker Robin Jennison 50% to 33%, a two-point shaving of the gap between them.

The governor leads State Senator Jim Barnett 49% to 37%. Last month, Sebelius led Barnett 50% to 37%.

Oregon Governor
Democratic incumbent Ted Kulongoski narrowly leads Republican challenger Ron Saxton 43% to 41%.

Wisconsin Governor
Democratic Governor Jim Doyle, the incumbent, maintains a narrow edge over his Republican challenger.

Ohio Governor
Congressman Ted Strickland (D) leads Secretary of State Ken Blackwell (R) by 16-percentage points in the race to become Governor of Ohio.

Illinois Governor
Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka now leads Democratic Governor Rod R. Blagojevich 44% to 38%.

Maryland Governor
Governor Bob Ehrlich (R) now trails Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley (D) 51% to 42% in this heavily Democratic state.

Florida Governor
Crist (R) Strongest at This Time
In our latest poll of Florida's competitive race for governor, Attorney General Charlie Crist remains the strongest Republican candidate, Congressman Jim Davis the strongest Democratic candidate. Crist is also strongest overall.

Crist leads Davis 44% to 39%. But Davis has improved since last month, when Crist led 44% to 33%.

Crist's competitor for the GOP nomination, State Treasurer/CFO Tom Gallagher, now trails Davis by five percentage points, 43% to 38%. In April, Gallagher and Davis were neck-and-neck—a big drop since February, when Gallagher led Davis 44% to 34%. Gallagher was probably hurt by accusations of insider trading publicized in late February.

Crist leads State Senator Rod Smith 45% to 34%. Gallagher also handily leads Smith, 44% to 33%.

Texas Governor
Perry (R) Still at 40%
Texas Governor Rick Perry (R) is enjoying a growing lead in a four-way campaign to keep his job.

For the third straight election poll by Rasmussen Reports, Perry earns support from 40% of Texas voters. Normally, this level of support would be devastating for an incumbent, but nothing is normal in Texas this year. Two Independent candidates join Democrat Chris Bell in there desire to replace Perry. All three earn between 15% and 19% of the vote.

California Governor
Neck-and-Neck Again
Our April survey of the California race for governor showed Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger pulling into his first substantial lead of the year over both Democrats vying for their party's gubernatorial nomination. But, a month has gone by and the Republican is once again neck-and-neck with each potential challenger.

The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Schwarzenegger and State Treasurer Phil Angelides each with 45% support. When matched against State Controller Steve Westly, Schwarzenegger trails by two points, 46% to 44%.

Alabama Governor
Governor Bob Riley (R) now enjoys a twelve-point lead over Democratic Lt. Governor Lucy Baxley, 49% to 37%.

Arkansas Governor
For the second straight month, Democrat Mike Beebe holds an 11-point lead over Republican Asa Hutchinson.

Massachusetts Governor
Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey (R) trails every Democrat she is matched against.

Maine Governor
Baldacci (D) Gains Ground
After struggling for months to attract more than 40% support in the race for Maine's gubernatorial mansion, Democratic Governor John Baldacci has finally gained some ground. He now enjoys 44% support and an eight-point lead against each of his two leading opponents.

The incumbent leads Congressman Dave Emery 44% to 36%. In April, the governor trailed Emery 42% to 39%.

Oklahoma Governor
Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry (D) leads his strongest Republican challenger, Ernest Istook, by 11 percentage points.

Georgia Governor
Perdue-Cox Getting Closer
Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue (R) is facing stiff competition from Secretary of State Cathy Cox (D) in his effort to be re-elected. At the same time, Perdue has opened a 15-point lead over another Democrat who wants his job.

Perdue now leads Cox by just six percentage points, 48% to 42%. That's just a bit tighter than last month's 49% to 41% lead.

Colorado Governor: Ritter by 5
Ritter (D) 43% Beauprez (R) 38%
The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in Colorado finds Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter (D) edging out GOP Representative Bob Beauprez by five points, 43% to 38%, in the race for Governor.

The two likely nominees have been neck-and-neck for a few months now. In April Beauprez led by a couple points, 39% to 37%. In March, Ritter had a point on Beauprez, 41% to 40%.

Ritter's late-February lead over Beauprez, 40% to 33%, was substantial, but a blip;

Wyoming House Seat in Play
Wyoming, a state whose electoral votes George W. Bush captured by 40 percentage points in the 2004 presidential election, may grow a bit more blue this fall.

Not as a result of any change in the governor's seat, now held by a popular Democrat. Our survey shows Governor Dave Freudenthal leading Republican Ray Hunkins 52% to 29%.

Even GOP voters are roughly split between the two gubernatorial candidates. Freudenthal is viewed favorably by 73% of voters, Hunkins by 42% (nearly as many have no opinion of Hunkins).

The contested U.S. Senate seat will not likely change hands either. Senator Craig Thomas, a Republican, also seems to be gliding to reelection, with Thomas besting Democrat Dale Groutage 64% to 25% in our poll. Thomas is viewed favorably by 68% of likely voters, Groutage by 32% (nearly half have no opinion of Groutage).

Michigan Governor
Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm leading Republican Dick DeVos 44% to 43%

Arizona Elections
Incumbents Cruising
It's good to be an incumbent in Arizona this year.
Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano continues to enjoy an enviable lead over two potential Republican opponents. Meanwhile, in his own battle for reelection, Arizona Senator Jon Kyl (R) also remains the heavy favorite.

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Napolitano leading Don Goldwater, nephew of famed conservative Barry Goldwater, 53% to 32%. The governor leads former state appeals court judge Jan Florez 58% to 22%, and leads attorney Len Munsil 55% to 28%.

New Jersey Senate
In New Jersey's U.S. Senate campaign, Republican Tom Kean, Jr. (R) now leads Senator Robert Menendez (D) by just three points, 40% to 37%.

Last month, Kean, the son of the former governor, led 43% to 36%. But most of our polls of this race have shown toss-ups.

Menendez is the incumbent, but an appointee, and a recent one. He was installed in January 2006 when fellow Democrat Jon Corzine left the U.S. Senate to become the state's Governor.

Washington Senate
Cantwell (D) 46% McGavick (R) 41%
Senator Maria Cantwell (D) from Washington has been on the defensive lately. She has antagonized some of the political left with her stand on Iraq and her vote on the Alito nomination. The state's Democratic Party Chairman raised doubts about her campaign last week and her GOP opponent ran an early ad blitz.

Add it all together and Cantwell's support has fallen for the fourth consecutive month and the fifth time in the last six months. The incumbent began the new year with a fifteen percentage point lead over challenger Mike McGavick (R). Now, that lead has fallen to a mere five percentage points, 46% to 41%.

Montana Senate
Burns Trails Both Democrats
Republican Senator Conrad Burns once again trails both Democrats vying for his job. Perhaps even more stunning is that a relatively unknown GOP candidate now polls better than Burns when matched against the Democrats.

Burns now trails State Senate President Jon Tester 48% to 44%. A month ago, Burns held a very slight lead over Tester. They were even at the end of March.

After pulling to within two points of State Auditor John Morrison last month, Burns now trails by four, 49% to 45%. In March, Burns trailed Morrison by five points.

Florida Senate
Nelson (D) leads likely GOP challenger Katherine Harris (R) by twenty-seven percentage points, 60% to 33%.

Ohio Senate
Ohio Congressman Sherrod Brown (D) holds a three-point lead over incumbent Senator Mike DeWine (R).

Nebraska Senate
Democratic Senator Ben Nelson leads former Ameritrade COO Pete Ricketts (R) 54% to 35%

Missouri Senate
Republican Senator Jim Talent narrowly leads his Democratic challenger, State Auditor Claire McCaskill, 43% to 40%

West Virginia Senate
Byrd leads Raese 57% to 34% That survey was conducted before the Primary.

Tennessee Senate
Likely Democratic nominee Harold Ford continues to trail all three potential Republican opponents.

Connecticut Senate
Lieberman leads businessman Paul Streitz (R) 59% to 23% in a general election match-up.

Maryland Senate
Democratic Congressman Ben Cardin is maintaining a substantial lead over Lt. Governor Michael Steele.

Ohio Senate
Republican Senator Mike DeWine leads Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown 43% to 41%.

Virginia Senate
Senator George Allen (R) retains a solid lead in his bid for re-election in the fifth Rasmussen Reports election 2006 poll in Virginia.

Rhode Island Senate
Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) continues to have a very tough row to hoe in his reelection battle, and fails to reach 50% support

CA Governor: Angelides (D) 46%, Schwarzenegger (R) 44%
Our first election poll here since California's June 6 primaries shows the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Phil Angelides, with a narrow lead of 46% to 44% over the incumbent.

Montana Trending To Tester
Democrat Jon Tester leads Republican Senator Conrad Burns 50% to 43% making Burns the second most vulnerable Senator seeking re-election this year.

Colorado Governor: Ritter Lead Holding
Ritter (D) 42%, Beauprez (R) 37%
For the second Rasmussen Reports survey in a row, Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter (D) enjoys a five-point margin over Representative Bob Beauprez (R) in the Colorado race for Governor. Ritter leads Beauprez 43% to 38%.

Illinois Governor: Blagojevich (D) Now Up by 11
After trailing earlier in the campaign season, Illinois Governor Rod
Blagojevich (D) now leads Republican State Treasurer Judy
Baar Topinka by 11-points in his bid for re-election. The latest Rasmussen
Reports poll shows Blagojevich with 45% of the vote to 34% for Topinka.

Massachusetts Governor
July 11, 2006 Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey (R) continues to trail all three Democrats who would like to be the next Bay State Governor.

New Mexico Governor and Senate: Democratic Incumbents Look Safe
20%+ Leads for Richardson (D) and Bingaman (D)
The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll of the contest—conducted a little more than a week after the switch—shows Democratic Governor Bill Richardson leading Dendahl of 56% to 32%. Thirty percent (30%) of all GOP voters side with Richardson as well.

The governor is viewed favorably by 66% of all likely voters, Dendahl by 37%. Forty-one percent (41%) view Dendahl unfavorably and 23% don't know him well enough yet to give an opinion.

Another Democratic incumbent, U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman, is also gliding to reelection, currently leading GOP nominee Allen McCullough 59% to 33%.

Bingaman is viewed favorably by 65%, McCullough by 34%. A whopping 36% say they're "not sure" what to think of McCullough. And just a few weeks after he won the GOP nomination, even 27% of GOP voters are "not sure" of him.

Minnesota Governor
Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty continues to trail DFL Attorney General Mike Hatch.

Florida Governor: Crist (R) Lead Widens
Crist 49% (R), Davis (D) 35%
Republican Attorney General Charlie Crist has opened a double digit lead in the race to succeed Governor Jeb Bush, leading Democratic Congressman Jim Davis 49% to 35% in our latest survey. In May, Crist led Davis 44% to 39%.

You know they are just going to vote back all those incumbents into office! LOL

There is always 5-6 Senatorial seats and 10-15 House seats in play. Should they change hands (most of those in danger are held by Repuglicans), we will have a much different Congress.

Governatorial elections are often no more than a popularity contest.

Keith Olbermann Delivers One Hell Of a Commentary on Rumsfeld
By: Jamie Holly on Wednesday, August 30th, 2006 at 6:22 PM - PDT

Keith had some very choice words about Rumsfeld’s "fascism" comments tonight. Watch it, save it and share it.

Olbermann delivered this commentary with fire and passion while highlighting how Rumsfeld’s comments echoes other times in our world’s history when anyone who questioned the administration was coined as a traitor, unpatriotic, communist or any other colorful term. Luckily we pulled out of those times and we will pull out of these times.

Remember - Rumsfeld did not just call the Democrats out yesterday, he called out a majority of this country. This wasn’t only a partisan attack, but more so an attack against the majority of Americans.

The transcript of Keith’s comments tonight is available below the fold.

The man who sees absolutes, where all other men see nuances and

shades of meaning, is either a prophet, or a quack.

Donald H. Rumsfeld is not a prophet.

We end the countdown where we began, our #1 story.

with a special comment on

Mr. Rumsfeld’s remarkable speech to the American Legion

yesterday. It demands the deep analysis - and the sober contemplation - of every

American.

For it did not merely serve to impugn the morality or

intelligence - indeed, the loyalty - of the majority of Americans who

oppose the transient occupants of the highest offices in the land;

Worse, still, it credits those same transient occupants - our

employees - with a total omniscience; a total omniscience which neither

common sense, nor this administration’s track record at home or abroad,

suggests they deserve.

Dissent and disagreement with government is the life’s blood of

human freedom; And not merely because it is the first roadblock against the

kind of tyranny the men Mr. Rumsfeld likes to think of as "his" troops still

fight, this very evening, in Iraq.

It is also essential. Because just every once in awhile… it

is right - and the power to which it speaks, is wrong.

In a small irony, however, Mr. Rumsfeld’s speechwriter was

adroit in invoking the memory of the appeasement of the Nazis.

For, in their time, there was another government faced with true

peril - with a growing evil - powerful and remorseless.

That government, like Mr. Rumsfeld’s, had a monopoly on all the

facts. It, too, had the secret information. It alone had the true

picture of the threat. It too dismissed and insulted its critics in

terms like Mr. Rumsfeld’s - questioning their intellect and their

morality.

That government was England’s, in the 1930’s.

It knew Hitler posed no true threat to Europe, let alone to

England.

It knew Germany was not re-arming, in violation of all

treaties and accords.

It knew that the hard evidence it had received, which

contradicted it’s own policies, it’s own conclusions - it’s own omniscience - needed to be

dismissed.

The English government of Neville Chamberlain already knew

the truth.

Most relevant of all - it "knew" that its staunchest critics

needed to be marginalized and isolated. In fact, it portrayed the foremost

of them as a blood-thirsty war-monger who was, if not truly senile - at

best morally or intellectually confused.

That critic’s name… was Winston Churchill.

Sadly, we have no Winston Churchills evident among us this

evening. We have only Donald Rumsfelds, demonizing disagreement, the way

Neville Chamberlain demonized Winston Churchill.

History - and 163 million pounds of Luftwaffe bombs over England

- had taught us that all Mr. Chamberlain had was his certainty - and his own

confusion. A confusion that suggested that the office can not only make the

man, but that the office can also make the facts.

Thus did Mr. Rumsfeld make an apt historical analogy

excepting the fact that he has the battery plugged in backwards.

His government, absolute and exclusive in its knowledge, is not the

modern version of the one which stood up to the Nazis. It is the modern

version of the government… of Neville Chamberlain.

But back to today’s Omniscient Ones.

That about which Mr. Rumsfeld is confused is simply this:

This is a Democracy. Still. Sometimes just barely. And as such,

all voices count - not just his. Had he or his president perhaps

proven any of their prior claims of omniscience - about Osama Bin

Laden’s plans five years ago - about Saddam Hussein’s weapons four years ago

- about Hurricane Katrina’s impact one year ago - we all might be able to

swallow hard, and accept their omniscience as a bearable, even useful

recipe, of fact, plus ego.

But, to date, this government has proved little besides its own

arrogance, and its own hubris.

Mr. Rumsfeld is also personally confused, morally or

intellectually, about his own standing in this matter. From Iraq to

Katrina, to flu vaccine shortages, to the entire "Fog of Fear" which continues to envelope this

nation - he, Mr. Bush, Mr. Cheney, and their cronies, have - inadvertently

or intentionally - profited and benefited, both personally, and politically.

And yet he can stand up in public, and question the morality and

the intellect of those of us who dare ask just for the receipt for the

Emporer’s New Clothes.

In what country was Mr. Rumsfeld raised?

As a child, of whose heroism did he read?

On what side of the battle for freedom did he dream one day

to fight?

With what country has he confused… the United States of

America?

–

The confusion we - as its citizens - must now address, is

stark and forbidding. But variations of it have faced our forefathers, when

men like Nixon and McCarthy and Curtis LeMay have darkened our skies and

obscured our flag. Note - with hope in your heart - that those earlier

Americans always found their way to the light and we can too.

The confusion is about whether this Secretary of Defense, and

this Administration, are in fact now accomplishing what they claim the

terrorists seek: The destruction of our freedoms, the very ones for

which the same veterans Mr. Rumsfeld addressed yesterday in Salt Lake City,

so valiantly fought.

–

And about Mr. Rumsfeld’s other main assertion, that this country

faces a "new type of fascism."

As he was correct to remind us how a government that knew

everything could get everything wrong, so too was he right when he

said that - though probably not in the way he thought he meant it.

This country faces a new type of fascism - indeed.

–

Although I presumptuously use his sign-off each night, in feeble

tribute… I have utterly no claim to the words of the exemplary journalist

Edward R. Murrow.

But never in the trial of a thousand years of writing could

come close to matching how he phrased a warning to an earlier generation of

us, at a time when other politicians thought they (and they alone) knew

everything, and branded those who disagreed, "confused" or "immoral."

Thus forgive me for reading Murrow in full:

"We must not confuse dissent with disloyalty," he said, in 1954.

"We must remember always that accusation is not proof, and that conviction

depends upon evidence and due process of law.

We will not walk in fear - one, of another. We will not be

driven by fear into an age of un-reason, if we dig deep in our history

and our doctrine, and remember that we are not descended from fearful men;

Not from men who feared to write, to speak, to associate, and to

defend causes that were - for the moment - unpopular."

And so, good night, and good luck.

Scott Rassmussen Polling:
President Bush Job Approval
Today, 41% of American adults approve of the way that President Bush is performing his job and 58% disapprove. That's about where the numbers were before the President’s 9/11 speech.

Overall, only 19% of Americans Strongly Approve and 42% Strongly Disapprove.

Senate Balance of Power

The battle for control of the U.S. Senate is getting closer—much closer. Little more than a week ago, our Balance of Power summary showed the Republicans leading 50-45 with five states in the Toss-Up category. Today, Rasmussen Reports is changing three races from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat.” As a result, Rasmussen Reports now rates 49 seats as Republican or Leans Republican while 48 seats are rated as Democrat or Leans Democrat (see State-by-State Summary). There are now just three states in the Toss-Up category--Tennessee, New Jersey, and Missouri.

Today’s changes all involve Republican incumbents who have been struggling all year. In Montana, Senator Conrad Burns (R) has fallen behind Jon Tester (D). Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) survived his primary but starts the General Election as a decided underdog. Sherrod Brown (D) is enjoying a growing lead over Ohio Senator Mike DeWine (R).

Four other seats are now ranked as “Leans Democrat”—Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Maryland, and Michigan.

Virginia is the only state rated as “Leans Republican.”

Democrats have to win all seven states leaning their way plus all three Toss-Ups to regain control of the Senate. While that’s a tall order, recent history shows that it is quite possible for one party or the other to sweep all the close races. The Democrats did so in Election 2000 and the Republicans returned the favor in 2002. If the Democrats win all those seats but one, there would be a 50-50 tie. In that circumstance, Vice-President Dick Cheney would cast the deciding vote in his Constitutional role as the presiding officer of the Senate.